CNN’s Henry Enten is warning Democrats to temper their midterm expectations as elections near.
Social media discussions would have you believe that President Donald Trump’s military action in Iran has made Republicans so unpopular that Democrats are going to sweep up seats in the midterms and obstruct the president’s agenda until the end of his term. But according to Enten, CNN’s data guru, things are pretty bleak for both parties.
Watch:
“So in the latest CNN poll, it showed that Democrats have a six-point lead in the race for Congress,” said anchor John Berman. “There are two ways to look at that, a six-point lead. “One, and say, hey, the Democrats are ahead there. Democrats should feel good about that. The other way to look at it is to say, for Democrats, is six points really enough? CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten is here. And that‘s the way that I think a lot of people are beginning to question this, given the political winds and whatnot. Is six points really a big enough lead for Democrats?”
“Well, I would say this, Mr. Berman, and that is that this lead is historically low for Democrats at this point with a Republican president. Because, take a look here, and I’m taking a look at the average of all the polls, Dem generic congressional ballot lead at this point in the cycle with a Republican president. On average, their lead’s actually slightly less, it’s five points. That’s less than it was back in 2018, when it was eight points, and way less than it was during the 2006 cycle, when it was 11 points. So, yeah, Democrats are ahead, but they’re only ahead by five with a president whose net approval rating is bordering on -20 to -30, depending on what polls you look at. You’d make the argument Democrats should be way ahead. And they’re just only sort of, slightly ahead,” Enten responded.
“Now, to be clear, five points might be enough for them to retake the house, which is really a narrow margin. Would not take much at all for Democrats to get this,” Berman said.
“This would blow it,” Enten noted.
“The Senate is a different matter,” Berman pointed out.
“Yeah, the Senate is a different matter. I think five points is enough to take back the House, but in the Senate, five points is almost certainly not enough if you apply it to the Senate map,” the data analyst agreed. “Why do I say that? Because let’s just take a look, GOP would win the Senate with this map. Let’s say Republicans only hold onto the states that Trump won by greater than 10 points. That would, in fact, give them the Senate 51 to 49. Why? Because what you would see is that the Democrats would flip North Carolina, they would flip Maine, but Republicans would hold on to Ohio, they’d hold on to Texas, and they’d hold on to Alaska because Donald Trump won all those states by greater than 10 points. And I will note, John and I were talking, we have the NCAA tournament going on, this is sort of the chalk scenario going on, where the most obvious events actually do occur. Because take a look during the Trump era, look at this, flip the Senate seat, midterm and presidential years, states the other party won by 10-plus points in the presidential election, zero, zero, zero times did a party flip those states. So we’re talking about places like Texas, Alaska, Ohio, where Trump won by double digits.”
“Which is why the Democrats might need a bigger lead than they have now if the Senate is really in play,” the anchor explained. “What else is going on now for the Democrats that maybe should cause them concern?”
“What might cause them concern? Why is that generic congressional ballot lead so low? Because, just take a look at this, net favorability, party ahead at this point, midterm years with a GOP president. In 2018, Dems were up by 12. In 2006, on net favorability, which party you like more, Dems are ahead by 18. Republicans are actually ahead on net favorability at this by five points. So Democrats are just, simply put, running behind their previous benchmarks and they need to be running well ahead of them if they want to take back the United States Senate, given that math,” Enten said.
“To be clear, both parties are wildly unfavorable right now. However,” Berman concluded.
“Democrats are even more unfavorable,” Enten completed the anchor’s sentence.
Writers and editors can be contacted at [email protected] with feedback, tips, or corrections.
Sierra Marlee is a millennial whose hunger for the truth in a world of fake news has led her to write. Marlee also contributes to BizPac Review.
- CNN’s data guru warns Dems not to celebrate midterm wins prematurely - April 6, 2026
- Stephanopoulos reports Trump is trying to ‘subvert’ midterms. Sound familiar? - April 6, 2026
- Graduate with masters in historic preservation flees US because her $60 per month student loan payment is ‘psychologically burdensome’ - April 6, 2026
Comment
We have no tolerance for comments containing violence, racism, profanity, vulgarity, doxing, or discourteous behavior. If a comment is spam, instead of replying to it please click the ∨ icon below and to the right of that comment. Thank you for partnering with us to maintain fruitful conversation.