Texas Republicans may be in big trouble come the midterms in November, according to shocking new poll results from Fox News.
The Fox News poll shows Democrat Senate candidate James Talarico beating Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton by three points. While the three points are within the margin of error, they fit alongside a bunch of other data that looks horrible for Republicans.
For instance, the majority of independent voters (68 percent) back Talarico, as do the majority of Democrats (98 percent). Yet only 89 percent of Republicans back Paxton.
But it gets worse.
“Talarico’s advantage in the race grows to 6 points among both extremely motivated and extremely interested voters (53% vs. 47% in each group),” according to Fox News.
Democrat James Talarico Leads in Texas Senate Race — Fox News Poll pic.twitter.com/C430Q69Cz8
— NewsWire (@NewsWire_US) July 30, 2026
In addition, nearly one quarter of so-called “non-MAGA” Republicans, who are basically anti-Trump Republicans, back Talarico.
And even though the black community has aired some concerns about Talarico, 87 percent of surveyed blacks in Texas said they’d vote for him over Paxton. Hispanics also appeared to favor Talarico over his GOP opponent.
The most recent airing of concerns occurred earlier this month at a town hall:
James Talarico is pressed by attendee at Houston town hall on Black voter outreach.
Attendee received some applause among the crowd. pic.twitter.com/UMlGTyM22N
— Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 (@PollTracker2024) July 20, 2026
Paxton’s team has already dismissed the poll results.
“The only poll that matters is November 3rd,” his senior adviser told the Houston Chronicle. “Talarico’s campaign will end up exactly where every Democrat before him has ended up in Texas: a pipe dream.”
Meanwhile, the right continues to attack Talarico daily with the hope of eating away at his edge, with the latest attack centering around Talarico’s former fanboy praise of Dr. Anthony Fauci.
Case in point:
I got the coolest action figure for Christmas!
Thank you to all the health care superheroes working today. Let’s help by getting vaxxed and boosted! 🎄💉 pic.twitter.com/tVWUrE5lyV
— James Talarico (@jamestalarico) December 25, 2021
In the tweet above from 2021, the Democrat Senate candidate joyously celebrated receiving a Fauci action-figured doll for Christmas. President Donald Trump’s campaign team skewered Talarico over the tweet.
“Anthony Fauci forced people to stay in their homes, were banned from attending any sort of event, and then made up the ‘six feet apart’ guideline. And Low-T Democrats like @jamestalarico fawned over him while your grandmother died alone,” the team tweeted.
The right has also been bashing Talarico for coming out against including Bible study in school curriculums because it’s so-called “Christian propaganda”:
This Godless Talarico buffoon is perhaps the most demonic and disgusting politician to ever run for Office in Texas… and that’s really an understatement. pic.twitter.com/mgcmfiQH2a
— Rob Schneider 🇺🇸 (@RobSchneider) July 31, 2026
“The last one is maybe the most insidious: It was a new state curriculum that would teach Christian Bible stories as historical fact, as the only truth, to our youngest students,” he said in the clip above. “And I mean kindergarten, first graders.”
“These are kids who aren’t able to think for themselves yet. They haven’t formed their own worldviews. And to push propaganda, to push indoctrination on those youngest students is deeply immoral,” he added.
Democrats have matched every GOP attack on Talarico by firing back with attacks on Paxton, particularly his character.
“For most of the 11 years that Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has held statewide office, scandals have followed him,” Houston Public Media notes.
This is true. He was indicted by a Collin County grand jury in 2015 (shortly after taking office as AG) on two first-degree felony securities fraud counts and one third-degree felony count for failing to register as a securities adviser.
In 2010, multiple seniors aides in his attorney general’s office reported him to the FBI alleging he’d abused his office, engaged in bribery, and taken unusual actions to benefit his allies/friends.
Paxton was later impeached by the Texas House on allegations of bribery, abuse of public trust, obstruction of justice, disregard of official duty, and more. While he was suspended during the process, the Senate held a trial and ultimately acquitted him on all articles.
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