A special election rout in a deep blue stronghold was leveraged into a referendum on President Donald Trump’s policies, particularly where government waste was concerned.
Despite the widely perceived mandate with which the president was returned to the White House, winning all seven swing states and having control of the House and Senate, Congress remains perched on a razor’s edge throughout 2025. Tuesday’s special election in Virginia narrowed the margin further still as winning a vacant seat in the lower chamber was treated by the Democratic Party as proof of a “dominant trend.”
As the results came in for the race in Virginia’s 11th Congressional District, long held by Rep. Gerry Connolly (D) before his death from cancer in May, there remained no doubt that Fairfax County Board of Supervisors member James Walkinshaw (D) had defeated former FBI Special Agent Stewart Whitson (R), narrowing the GOP’s 219-212 majority back to where it was prior to Connolly’s death at 219-213.
Reacting to the results, Democratic National Committee (DNC) Chair Ken Martin aimed to sell the expected victory in the deep blue district as a bellwether, stating, “Rep-elect Walkinshaw’s victory continues the dominant trend we’re seeing so far this year — Democrats are massively overperforming in nearly every race.”
In addition to the initial results showing Walkinshaw outperforming the margins in the 2024 election with a spread of over 50 points compared to the 34 points that then-Vice President Kamala Harris had over Trump, Martin leveraged the fact that other special elections in Virginia this year have maintained the party status quo to suggest an energized base with “historic overperformances.”
The DNC chair based that claim on a +13% average in special elections this year compared to single-digit averages in previous cycles, leading him to contend, “We’re not just winning–we’re building unstoppable momentum.”
Democrats are breaking records and rewriting the story of American politics with historic overperformances in special elections this year.
2017-18: Democrats +6% avg
2019-20: Democrats +2% avg
2021-22: Republicans +4% avg
2023-24: Democrats +2% avg
2025-26: Democrats +13% avg… https://t.co/ggKn9PVBa0— Ken Martin (@kenmartin73) September 10, 2025
Heading into Tuesday’s contest, Walkinshaw sought to sell the notion that the race was a referendum on Trump as he told Fox News Digital Monday, “Folks in Northern Virginia and Fairfax are feeling the impact of the Trump policies. And I like to say we’re kind of on the leading edge of the Trump economy here. Everybody in Fairfax knows someone, probably someone on their street, maybe the parent of their kid’s soccer team, who has lost their job because of DOGE or the Trump policies.”
Similarly, his statement following the declared victory read in part, “The voters of Fairfax have spoken clearly: they want a representative who will fight for our community and deliver results.”
“I am humbled by the confidence they have placed in me, and I will work tirelessly to make life more affordable for families, protect our freedoms, and ensure that the 11th district has a strong voice in Congress,” he went on.
Meanwhile, Whitson argued to Fox News Digital, “the people in our district who have lost their job or who are worried about losing their job, they don’t need empathy. They need solutions.”
As it stands, two other seats remain vacant as a result of Democratic Party representatives dying this year, including the late Raul Grijalva of Arizona and Sylvester Turner of Texas. One seat held by a Republican was left vacant after Tennessee Rep. Mark Green resigned.
Elsewhere, incumbent Boston Mayor Michelle Wu (D) secured a nonpartisan primary win ahead of November, pitting her against challenger Josh Kraft (D), a nonprofit executive and son of New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft.
The narrative from the Democrats means Virginia Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R) has her work cut out for her in seeking the top spot in the commonwealth, as a poll from the end of August found her nine points behind former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D).
VIRGINIA POLL By VCU
GOV
Spanberger: 49%
Earle-Sears: 40%
—
AG
Jones: 47%
Miyares: 41%
—
Lt. Gov
Hashmi: 45%
Reid: 41%
——
August 18-28 | RV | D34/R33/I29 https://t.co/QjYORwVePa pic.twitter.com/77EsaDMPAY— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 9, 2025
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