It’s all fun and games until the feds investigate.

Former “Republican” Rep. Adam Kinzinger is in the hot seat for placing bets on the prediction market Kalshi on whether he’d receive a pardon from the Biden administration.

“Kinzinger said in an interview that he placed wagers on a contract on whether he would receive a presidential pardon and a separate contract on whether Biden would issue preemptive pardons toward the end of his term,” according to Politico.

“According to screenshots provided by Kinzinger, he made $823 on the trades. He said he also made ’25 or so’ total trades at the time and mostly lost money,” Politico reported.

Politico: Financial regulator investigates Adam Kinzinger over Kalshi trading

The CFTC is targeting trades the former House Republican made related to his Biden-era pardon.

Link to article: https://t.co/qs1kAB8m9J pic.twitter.com/rgLuQCeG1z

— Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 (@PollTracker2024) September 30, 2026

Kinzinger is claiming he had “no inside information” about possible Biden administration pardons for the January 6 Committee.

Unfortunately for Kinzinger, people aren’t buying it.

“I had no inside information”

Other than, you know, probably sources in the Biden administration, who told him they were going to pardon him. https://t.co/QWoNSMGqFz pic.twitter.com/PV3GpX4mk7

— Stephen L. Miller (@redsteeze) September 30, 2026

If Marco Rubio was caught Kalshi trading about receiving a pardon and got one, CNN would be spending every waking minute on it.

Jake Tapper would put on his serious face, Abby Phillips would be interrupting at a record pace.

— Chris VancouverBC (@Chris_in_VanBC) September 30, 2026

Truth.

X user Jewels Jones does an excellent job explaining how this likely all went down:

2.) December 2024. Kinzinger, two years out of Congress, opens positions on Kalshi, the federally regulated prediction market.

— Jewels Jones ® (@JewelsJonesLive) September 30, 2026

4.) He keeps trading into January 2025.

— Jewels Jones ® (@JewelsJonesLive) September 30, 2026

6.) Here is what Biden said that day.

These were “public servants” who “served our nation with honor and distinction.” The pardons “should not be mistaken as an acknowledgment that any individual engaged in any wrongdoing.”

— Jewels Jones ® (@JewelsJonesLive) September 30, 2026

8.) About 25 trades in all. The net came to $823.

— Jewels Jones ® (@JewelsJonesLive) September 30, 2026

10.) His answer: he had no inside information, he had been out of office two years, he read the rules first, and he never discussed pardons with anyone.

The CFTC has not commented. Neither has Kalshi. Nothing has been proven.

— Jewels Jones ® (@JewelsJonesLive) September 30, 2026

11.) Twenty five trades. Eight hundred and twenty three dollars.

That is the number at which a former United States congressman was willing to gamble on his own pardon.

The CFTC will decide whether it broke a rule. The rest of us can decide what it says about the man. 💎

— Jewels Jones ® (@JewelsJonesLive) September 30, 2026

Comment

We have no tolerance for comments containing violence, racism, profanity, vulgarity, doxing, or discourteous behavior. If a comment is spam, instead of replying to it please click the ∨ icon below and to the right of that comment. Thank you for partnering with us to maintain fruitful conversation.