Effects of President Donald Trump’s poll numbers and predictions for a landslide of Democrat victories in November’s midterm elections may not come to pass.
That’s according to Arnon Mishkin, the director of the Fox News decision desk, who says in a newly published op-ed that Trump’s “creative disruption” of U.S. foreign policy may be a deciding factor in the off-year elections, despite predictions of an incoming blue tsunami.
Democratic governors were elected by double digits in New Jersey and Virginia last November, and Republicans hold a razor-thin 218-214 margin in the House of Representatives, giving Democrats a boost of confidence that they can retake the reins later this year.
“All off-year elections represent a referendum on the president – and given President Donald Trump’s ability to dominate and disrupt – that’s especially true this November,” Mishkin wrote. “Fortunately for the GOP, there remain a host of known-unknowns – issues that will likely affect the outcome of November’s elections more than the state of the race in March.”
A Fox News survey released in January showed that “if the election were today, 52% of voters would back the Democratic candidate in their House district and 46% the Republican.”
Mishkin notes that while the “obvious known-unknown” factor affecting November’s elections is the economy, Trump’s “unorthodox foreign policy actions” may prove to be “decisive” for voters, citing uncertainty about Cuba, the changes in Venezuela’s leadership, and the ongoing campaign against Iran.
“People in the know will tell you foreign policy never matters in elections. They’re wrong. A president’s foreign actions – especially military – have an enormous impact on the perception of a president’s strength,” Mishkin contended. “President Joe Biden’s chaotic pullout of troops from Afghanistan transformed his job approval overnight. It never recovered.”
When it comes to Trump’s actions in Iran, “what’s going to matter is whether he gets a clear ‘win’ – as in Venezuela – or not,” Mishkin noted.
He contends that political analysts “should admit that it’s a clear known-unknown,” when it comes to Iran. “The reality of Iran – as Americans see it in the fall – will have a major impact on voters’ partisan conclusions in November.”
Closer to home, Cuba’s economy has taken a hit with the loss of Venezuelan oil, and “there are signs that the Cubans are ‘whispering uncle,'” he wrote, citing Cuba’s deputy prime minister, Oscar Pérez-Oliva Fraga, who noted to NBC News that “Cuba is open to having a fluid commercial relationship with U.S. companies, also with Cubans residing in the United States and their descendants.”
“I’m not making a military prediction of how any of those three disruptions will be seen in eight months. But their outcome will likely decisively define Trump’s disruptive presidency,” Mishkin concluded. “And if you want an idea of who’s going to win in the midterms – it’s those known-unknowns that will decide it, not Trump’s current dismal poll results.”
Writers and editors can be contacted at [email protected] with feedback, tips, or corrections.
Originally from New York, Powers graduated from New York University and eventually made her way to sunny South Florida. Powers also contributes to BizPac Review.
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