News/Commentary

Harry Enten points to data suggesting Democrats can ‘absolutely’ win Texas Senate seat

May 21, 2026 | | Print Article

CNN’s Harry Enten thinks Democrats “could very well” pull out a victory as he looked into polling from Texas’s U.S. Senate race.

The network’s senior data analyst told anchor John Berman that he wanted to dispel suggestions that Democrats have no path to victory in the Lone Star State, where, he said, President Donald Trump is “considerably less popular.”

“It’s simply put—they’re looking at the numbers. They are looking at numbers, and the idea that Democrats can’t win in Texas, I want to put that to rest. They could very well do it. James Talarico could very well win in Texas,” Enten said Wednesday.

“And I want to use a comparison point with 2018 because there was all this talk about Beto O’Rourke, right? ‘Oh, could he beat Ted Cruz?’ He could beat Ted. The numbers at this point in that campaign simply put did not support that conclusion. But the numbers at that point absolutely support the conclusion that James Talarico can win,” Enten continued, referring to the state lawmaker who won the Democratic Senate nomination earlier this year.

“So take a look. Texas Senate polls in May of the election year. When you matched up O’Rourke, Beto O’Rourke versus Ted Cruz, Ted Cruz was up by 7 points. He was clearly ahead. But look at the polling average now when you match up Ken Paxton versus James Talarico. It’s actually Talarico that’s ahead by 4 points,” Enten continued his analysis, adding that Talarico “is polling better than any Democrat in at least 24 years.”

“You have to go all the way back to 2002 to find a Democrat even polling anywhere close to where Talarico is polling right now. Texas Democrats have dreamt about turning it blue. This time, the numbers actually support the idea that they may actually be able to do it,” he contended.

ADVERTISEMENT

“What’s the difference between Cruz and Ken Paxton?” Berman asked, bringing up the 2018 elections.

“Yeah, the idea that Ted Cruz was not that popular—that’s a falsehood. That is simply put a false statement,” Enten responded, noting that “Texas GOP candidate net favorability, Ted Cruz’s net favorability was actually plus seven points in my average. Look what Ken Paxton is. The complete inverse of that—he’s seven points underwater.”

“In 2018, Democrats had this dream of turning Texas blue. The numbers didn’t support it in large part because Ted Cruz is actually decently popular. But Ken Paxton is anything but. In poll after poll after poll, he is underwater. No wonder Republican senators are running scared, especially after that Trump endorsement of Paxton yesterday,” he added.

“Trump is considerably less popular in Texas, which of course matches what we’re seeing nationally, which is that Donald Trump is less popular now than he was at this point in term one,” Entend concluded, putting it “all together” to contend that “Texas is absolutely in play.”

“Does that mean that Democrats will finally win their first Senate race since 1988 in Lloyd Bentsen? I’m not saying that. But it is a real possibility,” he told Berman. “What you are saying is 2026 is different than 2018. It is different than every campaign that I have been around for.”

ADVERTISEMENT
Frieda Powers
Latest posts by Frieda Powers (see all)

Comment

We have no tolerance for comments containing violence, racism, profanity, vulgarity, doxing, or discourteous behavior. If a comment is spam, instead of replying to it please click the ∨ icon below and to the right of that comment. Thank you for partnering with us to maintain fruitful conversation.

Latest Articles