Positive polling presented a possible upheaval of the Democratic stranglehold on the Empire State, well over two decades since the last Republican victory.
After three terms in office, New York Gov. George Pataki (R) declined pursuit of a fourth term in 2006, setting the state for more than 20 years of corruption wherein two governors resigned in disgrace, a third declined to run and the last could see her tenure come to an end this fall.
Though prognosticators foresee an advantage for Democrats in the midterm election given the trend lines disfavor for incumbent presidents, a recent survey conducted by Red Oak Strategic on behalf of Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman’s (R) super PAC Strong and Safe suggested favorable conditions to potentially defeat incumbent New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) on November 3.
The poll of 2,000 registered voters run July 7-12 found Hochul with a mere four point advantage at 47-43%, with the same data showing Blakeman dominating with independent voters 54-33%.
NEW YORK POLL – Governor for pro-Blakeman group
🟦 Kathy Hochul (inc): 47%
🟥 Bruce Blakeman: 43%Indies: Blakeman 54-33
——
Fav-unfav
Blakeman: 30-23 (+7)
Hochul: 38-58 (-20)Red Oak Strategic | 7/7-12 | 2,000 RVhttps://t.co/TfOam8ZbTp pic.twitter.com/IwuuMRhb6j
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 28, 2026
Further figures from the survey showed 58% with an unfavorable view of Hochul against 38% with a favorable view compared to Blakeman, who remained a relative unknown. Among those polled, 47% said they haven’t heard of him or have no opinion, against 30% of voters viewing him favorably and 23% unfavorably.
“The environment favors a challenger: just 33% say New York is headed in the right direction vs. 57% wrong track,” stated the Red Oak Strategic polling memo as reported by the New York Post. Looking back only as far as the previous year, 43% said they are worse off while a mere 15% claimed to be better off.
Where it concerned the finances of each campaign, the Post detailed that between $21 million on hand for Friends of Kathy Hochul and $22 million of the state Democratic Party’s funds, Hochul has over four times the financial resources of Blakeman and the GOP.
Meanwhile, the county executive has strong support from MSG and owner James Dolan, which have contributed hundreds of thousands to Strong and Safe in support of the Republican nominee.
Another telling figure from the poll, given the broadly favorable environment for Democratic candidates heading into the fall, the survey found the enthusiasm gap favors the Republicans, as 73% are interested in the gubernatorial race compared to only 44% of Democrats.
Boasting of his own success against lopsided odds, Blakeman previously told Politico, “In a county that has 110,000 more registered Democrats, I won a landslide victory with a majority of over 36,000 votes. So I think that demonstrates that I have the ability to get votes from people that you need to have on your side if you’re going to win a statewide election in New York.”
Compared to the 2018 re-election of then-Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) against then-Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro (R) who secured 36% of the vote, then-Rep. Lee Zeldin (R) earned 47% of the vote against Hochul in 2022. His success translated down ballot, helping lead other GOP nominees to victory.
While not as promising as the Red Oak Strategic survey, polling conducted by Siena College showed Blakeman trending upward. In February, the contest was marked as 54-28%. Months later, a June poll showed the Republican gaining some ground, with the poll reading 52-32%.
Worth noting, while Blakeman has the endorsement of President Donald Trump, dividing the left and right, Hochul secured the support of New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani (D), who, as the new de facto face of radicals taking over the Democratic Party, has managed to divide the left.
Native of Brooklyn, NY, Kevin Haggerty is a graduate of Hunter College where he studied Cultural Anthropology and Geography. An avid reader and truth seeker, he currently resides in Texas with his wife and their dog and, when he isn't researching current events and their impacts, you'll find him spending time with friends and family or working on his next novel.
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