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America’s white majority ends with GenZ, census data reveals

August 7, 2023 | | Print Article

In just over two decades from now — sometime around 2045 — non-Hispanic white people will represent less than half the United States overall population, making Generation Z the last generation of Americans to live with a white majority, according to census data.

If the analysis released this week by Brookings Institution senior fellow William Frey is correct, “Between 2010 and 2020, America’s senior population (65 and over) grew at nearly twice the rate (39%) of the prior decade, while the youth population (under 18) declined.”

The aging of Americans is not “race neutral,” according to  Frey.

“White Americans contributed substantially to older population gains compared to younger and middle-aged populations, which registered white declines,” he states. “Nonwhite residents accounted for all of the gains in post-baby-boomer populations. Although all race and ethnic groups are aging to some degree, the median age of white Americans is higher than all others in most geographic areas.”

In other words, the white American majority “is aging out,” according to The Hill.

Citing Frey’s analysis, The Hill reports:

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Generational data from the 2020 census shows the upward march of racial diversity by age group. Non-Hispanic white people make up 77 percent of the over age 75 population, 67 percent of the age 55-64 population, 55 percent of the 35-44 cohort, and barely half of the 18-24 age group. America’s children are only 47 percent non-Hispanic white…

In the decades to come, that wave of diversity will wash across the generations, yielding an America with no single racial group that can claim a numerical majority.

By 2045, according to census projections, non-Hispanic white people will fall below 50 percent as a share of the American population. By 2050, non-Hispanic white people will represent less than 40 percent of the under-18 population.

 

It all sounds very cut and dry, but, according to demographers, the projections are an oversimplification of America’s diversity, The Hill notes.

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“For a start, millions of Americans no longer embrace a single racial identity,” the outlet states. “How many? It’s hard to tell.”

“Getting back to those census projections: By 2045, more than 18 million people will claim two or more races,” staff reporter Daniel de Visé writes. “Subtract them from the total, and the population of non-Hispanic white people leaps from 49 percent to 52 percent of the remaining population, their majority status restored.”

According to Richard Alba, distinguished professor emeritus in sociology at the City University of New York, whites won’t be losing their majority status in America anytime soon.

“Whites are going to be the largest group in this country for a long time,” he said. “In a sense, we’re forming a new kind of mainstream society here, which is going to be very diverse. But whites are going to be a big part of that. It’s not like they’re going to disappear and be supplanted.”

The census, he argues, is “locked into a way of thinking that dates to the 20th century, and that’s the idea that people are only one thing when it comes to ethnicity and race.”

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“Today, multiracial Americans are the fastest-growing racial category in the census, a group projected to double in size between 2020 and 2050,” de Visé writes. “Alba and others said they believe even that number is a dramatic undercount.”

Even the way in which the census handles race is questionable, demographers point out.

“The agency counts people of Middle Eastern or North African descent as white, even though many of them do not see themselves as white,” de Visé explains. “Americans from nearby Afghanistan and Pakistan, meanwhile, are termed Asian.”

But demographers agree on one thing: If America is going to enjoy economic growth, a steady stream of immigrants will be needed.

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“The nation’s median age is 38.9, the highest it has ever been. Median age is rising because the national birthrate is falling. These trends threaten to deplete the American workforce: Fewer workers means less growth,” states de Visè.

“New arrivals, especially from Latin America, keep the nation young,” he continues. “The median age for non-Hispanic white people is 43, according to census data. For Hispanic people, it is 31.”

According to Frey, the “cultural generation gap” is already having profound effects on American society.

“The new statistics make plain that substantial old-young racial gaps exist in much of the country, and are likely to persist in the near term. This is reflected in a cultural generation gap that underlies many aspects of the nation’s social fabric and politics, including views about the recent Supreme Court decision on affirmative action and state proposals to limit teaching about race and diversity in public schools,” he stated. “The newly released census data can be used to bring about a better understanding of the nature of racial-generational shifts that are occurring in all parts of the country.”

Melissa Fine
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