‘Massive advantages over Democrats’: NBC data guru reveals why Dems could face November blowout

Harold Hutchison, DCNF

NBC data analyst Steve Kornacki said Monday that Republicans had “massive advantages” over Democrats ahead of the looming midterms, citing an Oct. 31 Gallup poll.

“This is new from Gallup. They ask folks the issues they considered most important. You see the economy tops abortion, gun policy and immigration. Then they ask folks who say these are the most important issues, how they intend to vote?” Kornacki said. “On all but one of these topics, Republicans have the advantage. On three of them: the economy, crime, immigration, Republicans have massive advantages over Democrats.”


Kornacki cited a Gallup poll listing the issues that respondents considered “extremely important.” The economy topped the list, with 49% considering the issue “extremely important,” followed by abortion at 42%, crime at 40%, gun policy at 38% and immigration at 37%.

Kornacki showed Republicans led Democrats in who the public trusted on four of the top five issues on the list, holding double-digit leads on the economy, crime and immigration, while having a 5% lead on gun policy.

“So when you look at this issue set, you look at how these voters are breaking along these issues, you see what looks like a significant Republican advantage,” Kornacki said. Kornacki added that the generic congressional ballot was not showing a big Republican advantage.

The RealClearPolitics average gave Republicans a 2.9% lead as of Oct. 28, as opposed to a a 1% lead on Sept. 29. A Trafalgar poll showed Republicans with a 6% lead over Democrats in the generic congressional ballot, while a Rasmussen poll gave Republicans a 7% lead.

The Gallup poll of 1,009 adults was conducted Oct. 3 to Oct. 20, with a margin of error of plus or minus four points.

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