An analysis of election result expectations in a battleground state begged the question, “And what time does the water main pipe burst?”
Thoughts of hanging chads likely come to mind for anyone scouring their memory for a time when widely questioning the outcome of an election started to become the norm. Now, with eyes peeled for anything remotely resembling shenanigans, a Los Angeles-based outlet faced accusations of “normalizing the cheat” ahead of ballot counting in Michigan.
Monday on X, VoteHub head of data science Zachary Donnini shared analysis for the Wolverine State that depicted a scenario that would result in a former Rep. Mike Rogers (R) multi-point lead evaporating in the wee hours of the morning to wind up in a tie with Abdul El-Sayed (D) in their Senate race based on “historical reporting patterns.”
Absent from the report was an explainer on how far back in history VoteHub explored as Donnini posted, “Based on historical reporting patterns, we expect Michigan’s final 15% of votes tomorrow to come largely from Democratic areas and heavily favor Abdul El-Sayed. If those patterns hold, Mike Rogers could lead by 2.8 points at 12:54 a.m. in a race that ultimately finishes tied.”
Based on historical reporting patterns, we expect Michigan’s final 15% of votes tomorrow to come largely from Democratic areas and heavily favor Abdul El-Sayed.
If those patterns hold, Mike Rogers could lead by 2.8 points at 12:54 a.m. in a race that ultimately finishes tied. https://t.co/mqHFNxTA7a
— Zachary Donnini (@ZacharyDonnini) November 2, 2026
Many a voter who stayed up to watch the results of the 2020 presidential election come can recall a shared experience of dozing off with President Donald Trump in the lead only to awaken to a dramatic spike in totals for then-former Vice President Joe Biden. This sparked legal challenges from the right and an enduring claim from the left that the pursuit of truth regarding late ballot drop offs, ballot curing and more was akin to attempting to overturn the election.
In the immediate aftermath of the Election Day 2020, neither Michigan nor Wisconsin election officials offered explanations about the spike in ballots cast for Biden that helped put him over the top against Trump. Meanwhile, Michigan also became infamous for covering up the windows, blocking views of those trying to monitor the count of absentee ballots in Detroit.
As it happened, VoteHub’s look at “historical reporting patterns” also considered races in Georgia, Ohio, Texas and Wisconsin. In each case, ballots tallied while most Americans were asleep favored the Democratic nominee, closing the gap on the Republican nominee.
Ahead of Election Day, acting Deputy Attorney General Trent McCotter reminded on Fox Business that election monitoring by the Justice Department, which previously announced plans to deploy about 1,000 officials at polling sites around the country, has been a practice for 60 years.
Watch Acting Deputy Attorney General @PADAGMcCotter joined @FoxBusiness tonight to talk about election monitoring and the emergency motion filed this morning ⬇️ https://t.co/28JPzNW3qn
— U.S. Department of Justice (@TheJusticeDept) November 2, 2026
Contrasting that, a coalition of some 16,000 individuals assembled by Common Cause to conduct its own election monitoring marked some of the tens of thousands of trained individuals expected to be rolled out across the country representing either side of the political aisle.
As for the prediction of a surge in vote count to favor El-Sayed, reactions on social media were disgusted and simply “tired” of counts dragging on past midnight, let alone for days, when state’s like Florida manage to get buttoned up faster than some blue counties.
We need this expertise. 😆
And what time does the water main pipe burst?
— ThumpForTrump3.0🇺🇸 (@ThumpForTrump) November 2, 2026
@amuse Normalizing the cheat.
— GoSouth (@Sue2BlueSky) November 2, 2026
Sure,,,,,,because cheating.
Never seems to lean towards Republicans, funny eh?
— Just a 70’s kid stuck in 1984 (@THEMarkEdwards1) November 2, 2026
“Historical”
As in from 2020 onward?Our elections were fundamentally changed in 2020 to allow for fraud. This idea of a “mirage” is a psyop to condition the population into accepting fraudulent elections.
— teddy (@sgtTheodore) November 3, 2026
@EricLDaugh @USANadav Done counting by 11:00 pm.
— Rina Interiors (@Rinainteriors) November 2, 2026
And, THIS is why there is no trust in elections
— HuskerFan58 (@akeece58) November 2, 2026
Native of Brooklyn, NY, Kevin Haggerty is a graduate of Hunter College where he studied Cultural Anthropology and Geography. An avid reader and truth seeker, he currently resides in Texas with his wife and their dog and, when he isn't researching current events and their impacts, you'll find him spending time with friends and family or working on his next novel.
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