News/Commentary

More Republicans want Trump in ’24 than Dems want Biden, but GOP House seat lead is shrinking

August 29, 2022 | | Print Article

It’s a tale of two polls: While more Republican voters support Trump’s run for the White House in 2024 than Democrats are behind Biden, the number of seats the GOP is expected to win in their crucial bid to retake control of the House of Representatives has shrunk, and, shockingly, Biden’s approval ratings are slowly going up.

First, the good news: According to a new USA Today/Ipsos poll, 59 percent of Republican voters have pledged their support for another Trump term, while just 44 percent of Democrats believe Joe Biden “should be the Democratic nominee for president in 2024 and deserves re-election.”

Forty-one percent of Republicans said “it’s time for a change within the Republican Party,” and a whopping 56 percent of Democrats are calling for someone else to lead their party.

“In the wake of the Inflation Reduction Act’s passage, the American public gives the Democratic Party an advantage over the Republican Party on the ability to push their agenda through Washington,” Ipsos found. “However, the GOP holds the advantage on being good for the economy, at a time when inflation/increasing costs are the single most important issue to Americans.”

The results of the survey suggest an almost schizophrenic split in the thought process of Democratic voters who don’t want Biden to run again but feel he is “fighting for the people he represents.”

“The vast majority of Democratic voters agree that President Biden has significant government experience (92%) and major policy knowledge and expertise (86%),” Ipsos reports. “A similarly strong percentage say he is focused on bringing the country together (85%) and fights for the people he represents (83%).”

“However,” they continue, “despite possessing these qualities, Democrats are not as confident in Biden as Republicans are in Trump, though a majority still think Biden can win. Three in five Democratic voters believe he can win the next presidential election.”

Among those on Team Biden, “women (55%) and those aged 18-34 (53%) are less likely than men (67%) and those ages 55+ (65%) to say that President Biden can win the next presidential election,” according to the poll.

In contrast, “four in five Republican voters (82%) believe Trump can win the next presidential election.”

“Regardless of who will be at the top of the ticket in 2024,” the poll found, “[Republican] voters say the most important trait for the Republican nominee is someone who will stand up for the freedom and dignity of all Americans.”

“More than eight in ten (82%) say that applies to Trump,” Ipsos states.

And now for the not-so-good news.

While Republicans are still expected to take back control of the House, the number of seats they are expected to win in the midterm elections has dipped from 230 projected seats in July down to 226 seats today, according to the CBS News/YouGov Battleground Tracker.

The Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade and falling gas prices have given President Biden a boost, CBS News reports.

And then there’s Trump.

“[W]hile midterm elections are often referenda on the sitting president, this one is about the former, too,” CBS states. “For a majority of voters he’s a factor, either to support or oppose him.”

“Democrats are winning voters whose vote is based ‘a lot’ on how they feel about Trump,” the news outlet adds.

“Republican nominees: both women and independents (key voting groups) are more likely to say it’s Republicans who’ve been nominating candidates they’d call extreme – more so than Democrats’ nominees,” CBS contends.

As for the raid on Mar-a-Lago, CBS states that the “FBI search hasn’t directly changed many votes because of the sharp partisan splits over it, but then, it could be part of a larger issue holding back Republicans, as Donald Trump stays on voters’ minds.”

Among Independents, claims CBS, “Trump is net-negative.”

“Independents would prefer Republicans criticize Trump to support him on Mar-a-Lago,” CBS writes. “Half of independent voters name Trump as a factor in their vote, and by four to one, they’re voting to oppose him (far worse than Biden’s support-oppose ratio).”

“Most independents, like most Democrats, see the Mar-a-Lago search as an attempt to protect national security,” CBS explains. “They differ from Republicans, who see a political attack on Trump.”

Meanwhile, it seems the Biden administration’s massive spending programs — the Inflation Reduction Act and his latest plan to forgive student debt — are having the desired impact on voters.

“Biden’s job approval, and specifically his job ratings on handling bread-and-butter issues like the economy, inflation, and gas prices, have all risen,” CBS reports. “His overall job approval number is the highest it’s been among registered voters since February.”

By a very slim margin (55% and 54%, respectively) American voters approve of both the Inflation Reduction Act and the cancellation of up to $20,000 in student loan debt, the poll found.

Melissa Fine
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