Barack Obama’s pollsters from the 2012 election say they see “big red flags” for Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election, suggesting the Democrats’ ongoing persecution of the former president is paying dividends.
There’s no question Trump has completely changed the way politics works in America, and Salon is rather baffled that despite being the first ex-president in American history to be indicted and arrested, Trump’s popularity among Republican voters “appears to be stable if not growing.” The left-leaning magazine frets that Trump is basically tied with President Joe Biden in the polls.
Salon senior writer Chauncey DeVega — who marveled that “the disgraced ex-president now faces the real possibility of being sentenced to prison for hundreds of years” — interviewed Mike Kulisheck and Shannon Currie, from the strategic consultancy and marketing firm the Benenson Strategy Group. Kulisheck and Currie were Obama’s pollsters in 2012.
Kulisheck was asked about how he was feeling “about the Age of Trump and this ongoing democracy.”
“This is a tense moment to be an American. Trumpism is stress-testing the nation’s election system and institutions,” he said. “Trump’s upcoming trials will test the resilience of our system of justice, people’s trust in juries, and ultimately, our democracy.”
Citing a recent survey they did about Trump’s actions related to the 2020 elections and the January 6 riots, Kulisheck said it shows “a large majority of voters troubled by Trump’s behavior and his indictments. But, at the same time, Trump is tied with President Biden in the vote.”
Speaking of a “new normal” since 2016, he said “it’s best to prepare for low-probability events” and “design and analyze surveys with fresh eyes.”
“If this were 20 years ago, voters would disqualify Trump completely based on the fact that he’s been indicted on 91 different counts,” Kulisheck said. “But the reality of 2024 is that the MAGA Republican base loves him, and a lot of other voters are numb to his behavior.”
When it comes to Trump and the Republican Party, Currie said, “It’s more like, different verses, same chorus.”
“Words matter,” he said, before presenting left-of-center values like abortion, gun control and renewable energy as mainstream American values.
“In this era defined by Trump, the harmony of public sentiment no longer adheres to the conventional balance between Democrats and Republicans – with the middle playing out tune when we least expect it,” Currie opined. “Same dance, different beat.”
Claiming Trump’s voters and Republicans “more generally live in an alternate reality and echo chamber,” DeVega asked Kulisheck how these voters feel about Trump and his “apparent crimes.”
“Our recent poll explores voters’ attitudes about Trump’s role in efforts to overturn the 2020 elections, the January 6 riots at the Capitol, and the former President’s indictments. Predictably, three-quarters of Republicans reject criticism of Trump for what happened after the 2020 elections,” Kulisheck said. “That said, a sizable bloc of Republicans are consistently alienated by Trump’s behavior and critical of his post-election actions.”
He then cited “red flags” that suggest the left’s all-out assault on the former president is taking a toll on his electability.
“Among Republicans in our poll, 22% say Trump only cares about himself and cannot be trusted, 22% are less favorable to Trump because of his indictment, 24% say they are less likely to vote for him against Biden because of the indictments, and 44% of Republicans say that if convicted, Trump should face the possibility of prison time,” he explained. “If the base of the Republican Party is the party of Trump, these are big red flags for him.”
“Remember, Donald Trump only lost 6% of Republicans in 2020,” Kulisheck continued. “While Trump is holding onto his base, our data reveals fissures in his Republican support that would be more than enough to sink his candidacy and re-elect Joe Biden.”
He added that Trump is also “on his heels with Independents in our poll when the political conversation is about January 6th, overturning elections, and indictments.”
As for whether Trump’s criminal indictments are helping him with Republican voters, Kulisheck said while they rally to his cause the window for winning a second term is “extremely tight” — at the same time, he suggested that with Trump anything is possible.
“Our polling shows that the indictments are turning off majorities of Independents and enough Republicans to make Trump’s path to victory extremely tight in 2024,” he explained. “In a race that will be decided narrowly in a handful of states, Trump cannot afford to lose anyone from his 2020 coalition. But these indictments are rallying the Trump base in a way few anticipated.
“Between the media’s obsession with the horse race, and the ‘impromptu’ courthouse step campaign rallies Trump will likely host after every court appearance, we should brace for another unprecedented and unpredictable 13-month long news cycle focused on Trump, and not about the issues and fears that keep Americans up at night.”
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Tom Tillison grew up in Maryland before moving to Central Florida as a young teen. It is in the Sunshine State that he honed both his passion for politics and his writing skills. Tillison also contributes to BizPac Review.
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