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Rasmussen says Trump survived the ‘Obama bounce,’ maintains solid lead over Kamala Harris

August 2, 2024 | | Print Article

Former President Donald Trump has survived what is being called the “Obama bounce,” and still leads Vice President Kamala Harris despite a coordinated effort by the media to sell her to the nation.

This is not to say that the margin didn’t narrow, but the latest Rasmussen Reports survey finds that, in a two-way matchup, 49% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for Trump, while 44% would vote for Harris. And this is after the left threw everything behind the vice president and Big Tech placed its heavy thumb on the scale — see Google search bias. Hell, Democrats even threw in “White Dudes for Harris.”

“I can go into the demographics, but I have a really important chart… which shows what I call the Obama bounce,” Rasmussen Reports lead pollster Mark Mitchell said during an appearance on Steve Bannon’s War Room podcast. “Now, what Trump has basically done is survive a coordinated ‘info op’ to try and paint Kamala Harris as super likable, super competent. A lot of coordinated media attention, a lot of coordinated attacks of Donald Trump and J. D. Vance.”

Referencing Barack Obama’s finally endorsing Harris well after President Biden was reportedly forced out, Mitchell said the polling showed Harris making up serious ground after trailing Trump by up to 16 points.

“And if we had done a poll on the 24th and 25th, we actually would have showed Donald Trump losing slightly to Kamala Harris,” he said. “Now, that’s right about the time she got the Obama endorsement. But since then what you can see is Donald Trump has steadily clawed that lead back, and he’s up four points on the 30th — 5 points on the 31st. I think what you’re seeing there on the chart is literally her bounce fading and Donald Trump settling back into what’s probably a 4 to 5-point lead right now.”

The survey of 2,163 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on July 24-25 and 28-31, and also showed that 4% say they’d vote for some other candidate and just 2% are undecided.

“A week ago, Trump led by seven points over Harris, 50% to 43%, in the first survey since President Joe Biden announced he would withdraw his reelection bid,” Rasmussen said.

The polling outfit also did a comparison to the 2016 and 2020 elections, with Trump enjoying a wide lead over a Democratic opponent.

Real Clear Polling has Trump up by 1.2 points as of August 1st, while noting that in 2020 and 2016 Biden and Hillary Clinton enjoyed leads on this date.

The Harris-fest has not included many unscripted moments for the presumptive nominee, who will almost certainly have to debate Trump after the Democratic National Committee on August 19.

The one unscripted moment involving Harris didn’t go too well for the party. Biden and Harris showed up for a late-night photo op at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland to welcome home three Americans just released from Russia, and the vice president served up one of her classic word salads.

“This is just an extraordinary testament to the importance of having a president who understands the power of diplomacy and understands the strength that rests in understanding the significance of diplomacy,” she said.

Tom Tillison
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