via Wikimedia Commons

By TIPP EDITORIAL BOARD, TIPP Insights

Roughly between the continent of Australia and the U.S. state of Hawaii, spread across the Pacific Ocean, lie a group of atolls and islands – the Pacific Islands. The small republics and nations have largely stayed out of the headlines. But the changes in the geopolitical balance and shifting regional influences are drawing all eyes to the region.

For decades, America has provided defense assistance and other aid to the islands based on agreements now due for renewal.

COFAs

The bilateral agreements between the United States and three countries of the Micronesian region – the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI), the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM), and the Republic of Palau – are collectively known as Compacts of Free Association (COFAs).

According to the agreements, in exchange for funding, military security, and other services, the islands have given the U.S. exclusive rights to maintain military bases in the territorial lands and waters. These agreements are to be renewed periodically. As per the timeline, accords with the Marshall Islands and the Federated States of Micronesia must be renewed by 2023.

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The Necessity Of The COFAs

Recent geopolitical developments give a significant thrust to the necessity and prudence of having such contracts in place.

China’s ambitions are not limited to its borders or backyard. Beijing’s secretive security pact with the Solomon Islands, finalized a few months ago, reiterates the fact. The “military clause” in the COFA grants the U.S. exclusive defense rights and access is crucial to keeping China from setting up military bases and naval ports in the region.

Also, Guam plays a vital role in the U.S. assisting Taiwan. The island, largely out of China’s strike capability, is likely to serve as a logistic hub and a key location from which military assets can be moved rapidly in a crisis. The Federated States of Micronesia (FSM) is about 500 nautical miles from Guam. The potential of a Chinese military base on the island is too big a risk to ignore.

Besides, China has been using economic aid and bilateral trade relations with other countries to erode diplomatic support for Taiwan. The Marshall Islands is one of only 14 nations with formal diplomatic ties with Taipei.

Shifting Equations

Though COFAs guarantee defense exclusivity, there are no clauses that prevent the nations from seeking or engaging in economic and other relations with other countries. China’s Belt and Road Initiative and other state-propelled economic overtures may lure these nations seeking development into Beijing’s sphere of influence. China is also known to acquire strategic geopolitical assets employing the Salami technique. The Federated States of Micronesia (FSM) is already a member of the BRI and has received millions of dollars for infrastructural projects under the scheme.

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Therefore, it is vital that the American administration handle negotiations with the gravity it deserves in the current context. Addressing the island’s economic vulnerabilities will be critical for retaining them in the sphere of American influence. The unique challenges these tiny populations face, especially the catastrophic effects of climate change on their livelihoods and land, will have to be addressed.

The cloud of nuclear bomb tests hangs over the bilateral negotiations. During the 1940s and 1950s, America detonated over 66 nuclear warheads in the Marshall Islands atolls of Bikini and Enewetak. The Marshallese have repeatedly asked for “just compensation,” claiming that the sum already paid does not recompense for their continued suffering and loss of land and livelihood. The site leaks nuclear waste into the ocean and remains a contention between the two parties.

China waiting in the wings to move in with “dollar diplomacy” and dazzling development projects has somewhat leveled the playing field in these ongoing negotiations. Speaking at the UN, David Kabua, the Marshallese President, said, “It is vital that the legacy and contemporary challenges of nuclear impact testing be better addressed, that climate change be addressed with the urgency and commitment it deserves, and that our voice as an equal partner is strengthened.”

In today’s climate, these small nations have a big role to play in keeping the Pacific calm and free.

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