Aside from ABC News and the Associated Press, the general belief is that control of the U.S. Senate will be a tight contest in November, with many politicos expecting the Republican Party to eke out a majority to go along with what should be an easy retaking of the House.
Raising more than a few eyebrows over the weekend, ABC News deleted a tweet that ran with a lede from an AP article declaring that Democrats are going to hold on to the House AND “pick up as many as four seats in the Senate.” With seven seats seen to be at play, that prognostication is taking a rosy look at the midterms while ignoring what most polling shows.
The seven Senate seats “most likely to flip,” according to The Hill, are Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, New Hampshire and North Carolina.
In Pennsylvania, Republican Sen. Pat Toomey is retiring and the battle to fill his seat features Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, who had a serious stroke days before winning the Democratic primary, and Trump-backed Republican candidate Dr. Mehmet Oz.
“I should have taken my health more seriously,” Fetterman said in a statement afterward. “The stroke I suffered on May 13 didn’t come out of nowhere. Like so many others, and so many men in particular, I avoided going to the doctor, even though I knew I didn’t feel well. As a result, I almost died.”
Despite the health issue, a USA Today Network-Suffolk University poll released this week has Fetterman up by a 9-point margin.
In Georgia, incumbent Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock, a radical left pastor who defeated former Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) in a runoff election in Jan. 2021, is up against Heisman Trophy-winning Georgia Bulldog football star Herschel Walker. Democrats are digging deep into Walker’s past in a desperate attempt to throw everything — including the kitchen sink — at him.
Polling out this week from Eastern Carolina University has Warnock and Walker tied at 46 percent.
Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, the incumbent Democrat in Nevada will face former state Attorney General Adam Laxalt in November, who has been endorsed by Trump. Laxalt also had the backing of Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. A tourist state, Nevada is feeling the effects of inflation and record-high gas prices which favors the GOP.
As The Hill noted, Democratic incumbent Sen. Mark Kelly narrowly won the 2020 Arizona special election to take a Senate seat Democrats haven’t held in more than 50 years. The GOP primary will take place on August 2, and Trump has thrown his weight behind candidate Blake Masters. Other candidates include state Attorney General Mark Brnovich and businessman Jim Lamon.
Wisconsin is considered “one of the Democrats’ best chances of flipping a Republican-held seat,” according to the political news outlet.
Republican incumbent Sen. Ron Johnson is running for a third term having previously pledged to only serve two terms and the Democratic nominee will be chosen on August 9.
“The Wisconsin primaries are still nearly two months away,” The Hill reported, “but the top candidates vying for the Democratic Senate nomination are Lt. Gov Mandela Barnes, state Treasurer Sarah Godlewski, Milwaukee Bucks executive Alex Lasry and Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson.”
New Hampshire appears to represent the Democrats’ best chance of holding a Senate seat, and North Carolina is looking good for Republicans even though incumbent Sen. Richard Burr is not running for reelection. Well-funded Trump-backed Rep. Ted Budd is going against former state Supreme Court Justice Cheri Beasley, who would be the first black senator from the state if she prevails.
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