Polling guru says presidential election is ‘no longer a toss-up’

Democrats are in full panic mode and are once again targeting the Electoral College after a new election forecast heavily favored former President Trump as the victor in November.

Election analyst Nate Silver ran the models and came up with a 65.7% chance of victory for Trump over President Biden. The statistical expert unveiled his presidential election forecast on Wednesday and announced in a blog post about the results that “The presidential election isn’t a toss-up.”

“The candidate who I honest-to-God think has a better chance (Trump) isn’t the candidate I’d rather have win (Biden),” Silver admitted.

“Silver’s current prediction, based on 40,000 simulations run through the model, predicts that Biden, 81, is likely to edge out Trump, 78, in the national popular vote by one-tenth of a percentage point (47.2% to 47.1%),” the New York Post explained. “However, in the all-important Electoral College, Silver’s model has Trump receiving 287 electoral votes — just above the 270 needed to win the White House.”

“If the Electoral College/popular vote gap looks anything like it did in 2016 or 2020, you’d expect Biden to be in deep trouble if the popular vote is roughly tied,” Silver wrote.

“[I]f Biden loses Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada — and he trails badly in each — he’ll need to win all three of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania,” he noted.

“In our simulations, Biden wins at least one of these states 54[%] of the time. But he wins all three of them in only 32[%] of simulations. This is the sort of precision that a model can provide that your intuition really can’t,” Silver added.

Naturally, Silver’s forecast does not bode well for Democrats and predictably, they were looking to point fingers. Columnist and political podcaster, Matt Yglesias blamed the Electoral College.

Social media gave a collective eye roll at the hot take.

Frieda Powers


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