Democrats are in full panic mode and are once again targeting the Electoral College after a new election forecast heavily favored former President Trump as the victor in November.
Election analyst Nate Silver ran the models and came up with a 65.7% chance of victory for Trump over President Biden. The statistical expert unveiled his presidential election forecast on Wednesday and announced in a blog post about the results that “The presidential election isn’t a toss-up.”
“The candidate who I honest-to-God think has a better chance (Trump) isn’t the candidate I’d rather have win (Biden),” Silver admitted.
Nate Silver has published his first 2024 election model prediction…
It gives Trump a 66% chance of winning.
In my opinion, Nate is the best mainstream election forecaster in the game. He’s also said many times that he personally does not want Trump to win. pic.twitter.com/OVzaT29cCb
— Geiger Capital (@Geiger_Capital) June 26, 2024
“Silver’s current prediction, based on 40,000 simulations run through the model, predicts that Biden, 81, is likely to edge out Trump, 78, in the national popular vote by one-tenth of a percentage point (47.2% to 47.1%),” the New York Post explained. “However, in the all-important Electoral College, Silver’s model has Trump receiving 287 electoral votes — just above the 270 needed to win the White House.”
Today is going to be a “liberals hate Nate Silver” day. https://t.co/UwjIDsIRVw
— Matt Whitlock (@mattdizwhitlock) June 26, 2024
“If the Electoral College/popular vote gap looks anything like it did in 2016 or 2020, you’d expect Biden to be in deep trouble if the popular vote is roughly tied,” Silver wrote.
“[I]f Biden loses Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada — and he trails badly in each — he’ll need to win all three of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania,” he noted.
“In our simulations, Biden wins at least one of these states 54[%] of the time. But he wins all three of them in only 32[%] of simulations. This is the sort of precision that a model can provide that your intuition really can’t,” Silver added.
Naturally, Silver’s forecast does not bode well for Democrats and predictably, they were looking to point fingers. Columnist and political podcaster, Matt Yglesias blamed the Electoral College.
We haven’t talked much about the electoral college bias but @NateSilver538 says Biden has a 51% chance of winning more votes than Trump and a 34% chance of winning the election. https://t.co/cakdBiTDmh pic.twitter.com/n77guzLN67
— Matthew Yglesias (@mattyglesias) June 26, 2024
Social media gave a collective eye roll at the hot take.
People who complain about the Electoral College are like people saying the team who scores the most runs in the World Series should win the series, not the team who wins the most games.
— Jon Miltimore (@miltimore79) June 26, 2024
There is no such thing as electoral college bias.
— Frank (@richardrahl1086) June 26, 2024
@mattyglesias please tell me you aren’t an electoral college denier. We’re 50 separate states in a union. The EC is intentional and foundational.
— Cam (@noremacback) June 26, 2024
I think “bias” is a kind of a loaded term here.
The EC specifically is intended to isolate winning the election from a large state-driven popular vote contest – at least somewhat.
That’s not a bias, it’s a specific feature that’s designed to assure consensus.
— Armed Liberal (@TheArmedLiberal) June 26, 2024
That’s how Representative Republics work.
— Ameible (@Ameible1) June 26, 2024
It’s nice when the muh democracy people come out against the Constitution.
— Mike Honeycutt (@Mike_Honeycut) June 26, 2024
Writers and editors can be contacted at [email protected] with feedback, tips, or corrections.
Originally from New York, Powers graduated from New York University and eventually made her way to sunny South Florida. Powers also contributes to BizPac Review.
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