“The sky is quite literally falling,” the author of a recent study and MIT graduate said over alleged changes in the earth’s atmosphere.

Human-induced greenhouse gas emissions are causing cooling and contraction in Earth’s thermosphere, leading to a long-term reduction in atmospheric density at altitudes where most satellites operate, according to a study published in Nature Sustainability.

This decrease in density lowers drag on debris, extending its orbital lifespan and increasing collision risks with satellites and other debris.

This study uses projected CO2 emissions to assess their impact on the satellite carrying capacity of low Earth orbit.

The study claims that current trajectories suggest a 50-66% reduction in “satellite carrying capacity” by the year 2100.

“The upper atmosphere is in a fragile state as climate change disrupts the status quo,” lead author William Parker said in a statement.

Despite the atmosphere’s “fragility” and the reported increasing risk of colliding debris, the number of satellites launched in recent years has increased significantly.

“If we don’t manage this activity carefully and work to reduce our emissions, space could become too crowded, leading to more collisions and debris,” Parker warned.

The sun’s activity is cyclical, resulting in natural temperature and radiation shifts within Earth’s upper and lower atmospheres, but the study suggests shifts in satellite drag indicate unnatural changes.

“The sky is quite literally falling,” Parker said.

More than 10,000 satellites are currently in the Earth’s lower orbit and deliver essential services, but potential collisions could result in “space junk” that stays in orbit perpetually and increases the risk of even more collisions, according to the study.

“Our behavior with greenhouse gases here on Earth over the past 100 years is having an effect on how we operate satellites over the next 100 years,” senior author Richard Linares, an associate professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), said in a statement.

Linares and his colleagues believe that carbon dioxide and other “greenhouse” gases can cause the thermosphere, which lies in the upper atmosphere and where the International Space Station orbits, to shrink. The contraction of the thermosphere results in lower density, which results in reduced “atmospheric drag.”

If greenhouse emissions remain at 2000-year levels, the number of satellites that could be safely utilized in the Earth’s atmosphere would have to be reduced by 50 – 66 percent, per the study.

“We rely on the atmosphere to clean up our debris. If the atmosphere is changing, then the debris environment will change too,” Parker added. “We show the long-term outlook on orbital debris is critically dependent on curbing our greenhouse gas emissions.”

Below is NASA data visualization showing spacecraft “Lucy” flying through a satellite “swarm” and helps illustrate how many satellites are orbiting Earth.

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