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RCP electoral map STILL has Trump beating Harris while carrying 4 key battleground states

August 11, 2024 | | Print Article

New data showed former President Donald Trump clearing a key hurdle for victory in November with one telling caveat about battleground states.

Even before President Joe Biden stepped aside for Vice President Kamala Harris to be coronated as the Democratic Party’s presumptive nominee, all eyes remained fixed on how swing state splits were shaping up for the general election. Saturday, according to the RealClearPolitics electoral map, Trump was favored to win taking four of six the most hotly contested states without any toss-ups.

According to the latest map, the Trump-Vance ticket would claim victory on Election Day earning a total of 287 electoral votes over the Harris-Walz team’s 251.

Those figures included the GOP chalking victories in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania while they were currently projected to lose in Michigan and Wisconsin.

RCP’s polling wasn’t the only notable projection for Trump as Trafalgar Group InsiderAdvantage Polling data collected between Aug. 6-8 from 5,600 likely voters saw the president with even smoother sailing back into the White House as the survey foresaw a Red win in Wisconsin bringing the electoral map to 297-241.

Both maps showed the president being victorious once more in North Carolina after winning the Tar Heel State in both 2016 and 2020.

However, the findings were hardly unanimous as Saturday a poll released by Sienna Research and The New York Times showed Harris ahead by four points in Pennsylvania, which would prove enough to flip the result from 287-251 to a narrow 270-268.

Meanwhile, Ipsos maintainted that the opponents were in a “statistical dead heat” in the seven named battleground states with a margin of 2.2%.

“A new poll of American living in the swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada finds Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are in a statistical dead heat for the presidency,” Ipsos reported Thursday. “The survey shows that many people in swing states are concerned with inflation, immigration, and political extremism or polarization.”

“When asked how the candidates perform on these, Trump outperforms Harris on inflation and immigrations, while neither candidate has a clear lead on the issue of political extremism and polarization,” the report went on.

Out of those issues, inflation was considered the most important by 52% of voters (given the choice of three) with immigration at 32% and political extremism at 24%. They were followed by crime or gun violence, healthcare and housing cost or availabililty at 21%, 18% and 17% respectively.

Despite the considerable weight on the Keystone State, which Trump had also won in 2016 when he defeated former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Harris had opted against picked Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro as her running mate, choosing Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz instead.

Facing continued pressure from the Uncommitted National Movement to kowtow to their Hamas sympathies or lose their support, critics maintained that the vice president’s pick had hinged how she postured toward Israel with Harvard Law professor emeritus Alan Dershowitz suggesting, “in an effort to placate the anti-Israel progressives, Shapiro went out of his way to exaggerate his criticism of Prime Minister Netanyahu, calling him ‘one of the worst leaders of all time.'”

“Whatever the precise reason reasons,” the constitutional scholar went on, “the rejection of Shapiro was a victory for the anti-Israel and often anti-Jewish elements of the progressive left of the Democratic Party. It was a defeat for moderates who hoped to broaden Harris’ base of support.”

Kevin Haggerty
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