Trump leads hypothetical presidential poll as Biden battles plummeting approval

As most of America looks toward the midterms, some are taking a peek into what the 2024 presidential race may look like.

In a recent Emerson College poll for a hypothetical match-up between former President Donald Trump and current President Joe Biden, it appears that voters are ready to roll back the clock. In a direct head-to-head matchup, Trump leads Biden 44 percent to 39 percent. However, a telling 12 percent of voters say they will be voting for someone else.

A previous poll from May on the same topic indicates Trump support holding strong at 44 percent, but has seen support for Biden drop from 42 percent.

As of right now, however, neither have discussed their 2024 ambitions in detail, so it is yet to be seen if this political battle materializes. It is worth noting that there is no other Republican who scores in the double-digits in a hypothetical primary with Trump, with former Vice President Mike Pence being the closest at 9 percent, and literally, all others failing to even rise above 5 percent.

This may help explain why a massive 55 percent of Republican voters would choose Trump in a 2024 GOP primary while Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who is also being floated as a favorite in the event Trump does not decide to run, scored 20 percent.

When Democrats were asked whether Biden should run for a second term, 64 percent responded that he should, while 36 percent believe that another Democrat should run.

This is particularly bad news for Democrats when paired with Nate Silver’s recent forecast, which predicts an 87 percent chance that Republicans will stomp Democrats in the 2022 midterms and reclaim the House of Representatives.

“Republicans have an 87 percent chance of taking over the House, according to the Deluxe version of our model. That’s far from certain, but Democrats are fighting the odds: Their 13 percent chances are equivalent to tossing a coin and having it come up tails three times in a row.”

According to their calculations, the Senate will be a different story.

“Republicans don’t have any surefire pickups, meanwhile. Our model regards their best chances as being in Georgia, but that race is rated as a toss-up. And the races in Arizona and New Hampshire merely lean toward the Democratic incumbent, meaning they are still highly plausible GOP pickup opportunities,” Silver explains.


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