Voter registration swing spells bad news for Democrats

New polls show that Republicans are in a good position heading into the 2024 presidential election.

As America gears up to elect a new president and decide the composition of Congress, it looks as though the GOP is ahead in a few key areas. According to a new Gallup poll, Republicans are seeing advantages in “U.S. adults’ party identification and leanings, the belief that the GOP rather than the Democratic Party is better able to handle the most important problem facing the country, Americans’ dissatisfaction with the state of the nation, and negative evaluations of the economy with a Democratic administration in office.”

“More U.S. adults identify as Republican or say they lean toward the Republican Party (48%) than identify as or lean Democratic (45%),” the pollster explains. “Those figures are based on an average of Gallup polls taken during the third quarter (July to September) to minimize poll-to-poll variation in party identification estimates and to provide more reliable comparisons across presidential years given the different timings of the two major party conventions in July, August or September.”

“Party affiliation and voting are strongly predictive of individuals’ vote choices, with the vast majority of identifiers and leaners voting for the candidate of their preferred party,” the article continues. “At the aggregate level, there are typically more Democrats and Democratic leaners than Republicans and Republican leaners in the U.S. adult population. Democrats have won presidential elections in years in which they had larger-than-normal advantages in party affiliation, including 1992, 1996, 2008, 2012, and 2020.”

It is extremely rare that Republicans have a third-quarter advantage in an election year, and it’s rarer still for them to outnumber Democrats at any point. This could spell good news for former President Donald Trump, the Republican presidential nominee.

This data also appears to be backed up, at least in part, by data presented in August by Michael Pruser, which shows the GOP with a significant voter registration advantage over Democrats between November 202 and July 2024.

The Gallup poll data also shows that Americans feel like they can trust Republicans more to take care of the issues that they care about.

“By 46% to 41%, Americans say the Republican Party is better able than the Democratic Party to address what they think is the most important problem facing the country,” Gallup says. “The top issues Americans currently name as the most important are ones that tend to favor the GOP, including the economy (24%), immigration (22%), the government (17%) and inflation (15%).”

Americans are also giving Republicans a six-point advantage, 50% to 44%, in the ability to handle economic and international matters. A more substantial advantage of 14 points was awarded to Republicans because it is believed they will be “better able to keep the nation safe from terrorism and other international threats.”

Regarding economic confidence, Americans have an overall negative outlook.

Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index is currently at -28, indicating Americans’ attitudes about the economy are negative, on balance. The rating is derived from the 22% of Americans describing current economic conditions as “excellent” or “good” versus the 48% saying they are “poor,” and the 32% believing the economy is “getting better” versus the 62% saying it is “getting worse.”

In incumbent election years, a -28 economic confidence score would be closer to what it has typically been in losing (1992, 2008, 2016) rather than winning (1996, 2004, 2012) years for the president’s party. In 2020, Americans’ evaluations were essentially neutral when Donald Trump lost, though other incumbent presidents won when there were similar levels of economic confidence.

Sierra Marlee

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