Democrats get more bad news about their chances of holding the House

Sebastian Hughes, DCNF

Two major election raters have shifted their projected outcomes for several House races toward the GOP in yet another signal Republicans are favored to retake control in the midterms.

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball updated 11 races on Tuesday, with all becoming friendlier towards the GOP. Shifts occurred in districts that were previously considered safer for Democrats, like Nevada Rep. Susie Lee’s 3rd Congressional District, as well as those previously thought to be competitive for Republicans, like Texas Rep. Tony Gonzales’ 23rd Congressional District.

“Our main question about the House continues to be not whether Republicans will flip the House — although we would not completely shut the door on Democrats’ retaining control if the political environment improves markedly — but rather how big the Republicans’ eventual majority will be,” wrote Kyle Kondik, managing editor of election forecaster Sabato’s Crystal Ball.

Cook Political Report (CPR) made eight races more favorable to Republicans on Wednesday. Three Democratic incumbents, such as Rep. Abigail Spanberger of Virginia’s 7th Congressional District, had their races shifted from “lean Democrat” to “toss-up.” Overall, 27 seats held by Democrats are considered to be toss-ups or worse, while only 12 seats held by Republicans are labeled the same.

“President Biden’s approval rating remains stuck at 42 percent, and if anything the political environment has deteriorated for Democrats since January as inflation concerns have soared and Build Back Better has stalled,” CPR’s senior editor David Wasserman wrote.

“That means no Democrat in a single-digit Biden (or Trump-won) district is secure, and even some seats Biden carried by double-digit margins in 2020 could come into play this fall, giving the GOP surprising ‘reach’ opportunities,” he said.

The shifts are the latest bit of bad news for Democrats, as CPR originally projected the party to net four to five seats from redistricting alone, but decreased its prediction in March to only one or two after court cases affected congressional maps in Ohio and Maryland.

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