Historian who nailed every presidential election since 1984 has a surprising read on this one

Allan Lichtman, a professor of history at American University in Washington, D.C., has correctly predicted every presidential election since 1984, and he currently believes President Biden is leading Donald Trump in a head-to-head matchup.

The historian devised a “13 Keys” system to determine the outcome of presidential elections, which enables him “to predict the outcome of the popular vote solely on historical factors and not the use of candidate-preference polls, tactics, or campaign events.”

However, Lichtman says it’s way too early to make a prediction even though Biden currently has the advantage in five of the 13 keys. Trump leads in three, but Lichtman said the is a slim possibility that Trump could rally.

“A lot of things would have to go wrong [for the election keys] to go against Biden,” he told Market Watch. “But they could. I am very careful in not making a prediction.”

Lichtman expects to be able to make a call in the race by August.

Currently, he has Biden leading Keys 2, 3, 6, 7, and 13, while Trump gets 1, 11, and 12.

Key 9 could still be a factor that favors Trump, but Lichtman told Market Watch that the Republicans have yet to succeed in pinning a major scandal on the Biden administration.

“Here is the secret to being a successful forecaster,’ the Democrat told the outlet. “The most important thing is keeping your own personal views out of it. I’ve called about as many Republican wins and Democratic wins. In 2016 I was virtually alone in predicting a win for Donald Trump.”

The “13 Keys” can be seen below:

  1. Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
  2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
  3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
  4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
  5. Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
  6. Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
  7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
  8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
  9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
  10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
  11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
  12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
  13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
Tom Tillison


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