News/Commentary

Israel-Hamas conflict may cause ‘significant change’ in Jewish American voting habits in 2024

October 23, 2023 | | Print Article

The stand many Democrats are taking in support of Palestinians as Israel battles Hamas for its very existence may result in a “significant change” in the way Jewish Americans vote in the 2024 elections, according to several experts.

“Sixty-four percent of Jewish voters in the United States, according to the Pew Research Center, identify as Democrats or left-leaning while 26% consider themselves Republicans or right-leaning. Another 9% do not lean left or right, the think tank’s data shows,” Fox News Digital reports.

With the outspoken pro-Palestinian rants of Democratic “Squad” members, such as Reps. Ilhan Omar (Minn.), Rashida Tlaib (Mich.), and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (N.Y.), that could change in 2024.

Jake Novak, a political analyst and the former media director at the Israeli Consulate in New York, says he hasn’t seen such a “shift” among Jewish voters “since 1980.”

“I have not seen this kind of a shift – at least a discussed shift, obviously no one’s voted yet – since 1980,” he told Fox News Digital. “In 1980, Jimmy Carter still won a majority of the Jewish vote, but it was way down from ’76. There were a lot of Jewish voters who were disappointed in him.”

He predicts a “significant change” in how American Jews vote in the upcoming elections.

“I don’t know if any of the Jews will vote for Trump next November,” he said, “but I think as far as congressional candidates, there’s going to be a lot more Jews voting for Republican candidates and or people who may primary some of the Democratic candidates who have let them down.”

Polling data ahead of the 2020 elections showed that a majority of Orthodox Jewish-American voters planned to support Donald Trump, not Democrat Joe Biden, Novak noted, adding that the Orthodox community already tended to lean Republican.

Rather than believe Omar and Tlaib are speaking for Muslim Americans, he said, many liberal Jewish Americans may conclude that they are “representing people who are enemies of the country.”

The war between Israel and Hamas has “opened the eyes” of Jewish Americans, Rabbi Yoni Fein, who heads a southern Jewish school, said.

“I think what’s happened has opened the eyes of all Americans, but certainly Jewish Americans, is the importance of substantive policy stances of our presidential candidates,” Fein told Fox News Digital. “Instead of focusing on personality and political correctness or catchy slogans, we are seeing the consequences of American policy on the world stage. Economy, foreign policy and security are going to be paramount above all else.”

Across the nation, he noted, there has been a “rise of antisemitism and these protests of anti-American values in the streets of major American cities.”

They should “wake up all voters to the importance of strong leadership that is focused on law and order and protecting the integrity of what made America the greatest country on Earth,” Fein said.

Fran Biderman-Gross — who was “in synagogue” when news of Hamas’s attack on Israel broke — agrees, saying the “current and ongoing acts of terrorism and support for Israel will lead to increased support for candidates aligned with the Jewish-American and anti-terroristic views community’s views.”

“However, the ultimate impact will depend on political discourse and … how these issues are presented in political discourse,” she said. “The Biden administration’s approach to engaging with those in the middle and on the right is currently unfolding. The trajectory of this engagement will be of paramount importance, given the considerable time remaining until the next election.”

David Bernstein, author of “Woke Anti-Semitism” and the founder of the Jewish Institute for Liberal Values, remains skeptical.

“As it now stands, I don’t see the American-Jewish vote shifting very much, and I doubt that the candidates will do much to specifically appeal to it – beyond the usual show of support for Israel,” he predicted.

“Trump actually did six points better – going from 24 to 30% – in 2020 than in 2016. So, there’s some movement,” he added. “The Jewish vote has been remarkably stable in the past 50 years, but Jimmy Carter went from 71% in 1976 to 45% in 1980. That’s because his popularity more generally declined but also because he was perceived as cool to Israel.”

A Democrat candidate would “likely have to be viewed as hostile to Israel” to “lose significant ground with American Jews,” Bernstein said. And that, he said, is “not the case with President Biden, who, if anything, increased his stock after his initial speech and then his visit to Israel.”

As the national political director for the Republican Jewish Coalition (RJC), Sam Markstein said the Jewish vote “will be, once again, absolutely critical in the 2024 presidential election, making the decisive difference in key battleground states like Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada – which were all decided by less than 2.5% in 2020.”

“Years ago, candidates for elected offices – Republicans and Democrats – could stand up and say, ‘I stand with Israel,’ and it was an automatic applause line; now, unfortunately, you’d be booed off the stage as a Democrat,” Markstein said. “The current situation in Israel has cemented that the Republican Party stands unequivocally with Israel, and RJC is tremendously proud of the unified Republican response in support of the Jewish state; meanwhile, major cracks have been exposed and deepened in the Democratic Party between the mainstream and radical left, which has parroted Hamas terrorist talking points, spread dangerous misinformation about the hospital explosion in Gaza, and attempted to tie the hands of Israel as it defends itself and fights barbarism on its doorstep.”

“RJC,” Markstein said, “is confident that Jewish voters will remember where each party stood during these dark days.”

Unsurprisingly, Halie Soifer, CEO of the Jewish Democratic Council of America (JDCA), reads the current political climate quite differently.

While she agrees that the Jewish vote “will play a pivotal role in the 2024 presidential election in swing states,” she believes “Biden’s handling of the current crisis in Israel will no doubt increase his support among Jewish voters and could make the difference for President Biden in battleground states.”

“The difference between Joe Biden and Donald Trump could not be more clear to Jewish voters,” Soifer stated, “and in 2024, Jewish voters will remember that President Biden and Democrats stood with Israel.”

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Melissa Fine
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