By tippinsights Editorial Board, TIPP Insights
As inflation roils the economy, it has become the most critical issue in the minds of midterm voters. Republicans have a one-point edge over Democrats on the generic ballot in the latest Golden/TIPP Poll of 1,043 registered voters. The poll was taken from May 4 to May 6 after Supreme Court internal deliberations leaked.
The poll asked respondents: What is your preference for the outcome of this November’s congressional elections?
- 43% said a Congress controlled by Republicans,
- 42% preferred a Congress held by Democrats, and
- 15% were not sure
The leak’s impact is likely factored into the tight race within the poll’s margin of error.
Importance Of Issues
Recent TIPP polls highlight the importance of inflation and immigration. If the Supreme Court overturns Roe, abortion will likely gain significance. But, it is unknown how significant it will be to midterm voters.
The Golden/TIPP Poll tested the three issues in the context of the midterms: inflation, immigration, and abortion.
Inflation (94%) emerged as the #1 important issue, followed by immigration (85%) and abortion (79%). These numbers combine “very important” and “somewhat important” responses to the question.
Looking at “very important,” inflation garners 74%, followed by immigration at 55% and abortion at 53%.
Preference: Republican Congress
Forty-three percent wanted to see a Congress controlled by Republicans. Inflation (98%) was the #1 issue for this segment. Immigration (96%) came in at #2, followed by abortion (72%).
For the “very important” response, inflation got 85%, and immigration got 77%. Abortion got only 47%.
Preference: Democratic Congress
Forty-two percent of respondents wanted to see a Congress controlled by Democrats. Inflation (93%) was the #1 issue in this segment. Abortion (90%) came in at close #2, followed by immigration (79%).
For the “very important” response, both inflation and abortion garnered 65%. Immigration got only 40%.
Impact Of SCOTUS Decision
To better understand the potential impact of a SCOTUS decision that overturns Roe, we asked a follow-up question: Thinking about the mid-term election, if the Supreme Court decides to overturn Roe vs. Wade, are you…
The responses to choose from were “more likely to vote Republican,” “more likely to vote Democrat,” “it will not change your vote one way or the other,” and “not sure.”
- 23% stated they were more likely to vote Republican
- 37% said they were more likely to vote Democrat
- 31% mentioned it would not have any impact
- 10% were not sure
Overturning Roe is likely to energize Democratic voters more than Republican voters. The above chart manifests this phenomenon.
We decided to look under the hood. As the cross-tab below shows, the red boxes are switchers toward Republicans and the blue boxes towards Democrats.
Democrats gain 56 voters, and Republicans gain 22 voters for a net Democratic gain of 34 voters, which is 3.26% of the electorate.
Inflation will be the #1 issue for all voters. While immigration will be the #2 issue for Republican voters, abortion will be the #2 issue for Democratic voters. This pattern is likely to remain unchanged till the midterm elections.
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