New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani may have won his race, but traders are betting on a different future altogether.
Some traders on prediction sites like Kalshi and Polymarket are putting their money down on whether or not Mamdani will be deported by the end of the year. This comes after the Ugandan-born socialist beat out Andrew Cuomo and Curtis Sliwa to lead the largest city in the United States.
According to the odds, it’s a long shot, but the fact that it’s being discussed in the betting sphere may come as a surprise. President Donald Trump has previously questioned the citizenship of NYC’s newest mayor, but there has been no serious talk of what a deportation order in his case would look like. Mamdani became a naturalized citizen in 2018, and the road to sending him back to Uganda would likely be difficult, if not impossible, and fraught with legal proceedings.
It appears that even the traders know that it is next to impossible, as odds for deportation fell from 8.5% on November 5 to 3% on Kalshi. There is a mere 1% chance of the same being wagered on Polymarket.
Mamdani ran a successful campaign on promises to address affordability, a topic that unanimously decided the November 4 election that saw leftists sweep up seats in places like NYC, New Jersey and Virginia. With vows to establish publicly-owned grocery stores, free busses and rent freezes, it’s not hard to see why he was the more popular candidate at a time when people are barely making ends meet. Unfortunately, that money is going to have to come from somewhere, and many of those who believe they will be taxed more heavily to make the socialist’s dreams come true are poised to move out of state and take their money with them.
As BizPac Review previously reported, the future of NYC’s business class will be uncertain under this new leadership:
“You can look anywhere in the world to see socialism doesn’t work and it’s a failure, and yet it’s now going to be tried as an experiment in the largest population center in the United States of America,” said Marc Lotter, the co-host of “Wake Up America” on Newsmax TV. “And what I also think it shows is that those who can leave will. They’re not going to put up with this.”
ADVERTISEMENTThe campaign veteran suggested that Mamdani’s socialist platform may cause individuals and businesses to flee the city, widely seen as the center of American capitalism and the financial industry.
“You know this, this isn’t, you know, 20, 30 years ago. No one, whether you’re a billionaire, whether you’re a corporation, whether you’re a CEO, has to be here anymore. You can remote in,” Lotter said. “There’s no requirement that you physically be in the city of New York anymore.”
A poll conducted by JL Partners for the Daily Mail in late October found that 9% of New Yorkers said they would “definitely” leave and 25% would “consider” leaving the Big Apple if Mamdani were to win.
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Sierra Marlee is a millennial whose hunger for the truth in a world of fake news has led her to write. Marlee also contributes to BizPac Review.
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