Biden, Trump pollsters say a 2024 rematch would be close – but one candidate would have advantages

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As former President Donald Trump continually teases another White House run in 2024 and President Joe Biden has already committed to running for re-election, pollsters have begun to take a closer look at just what a rematch would look like.

And their conclusion? The race would be close — even more so than their 2020 match-up — though Biden gets the nod.

That’s according to a national survey released last week by The Wall Street Journal, which found that Biden would receive around 46 percent of the vote compared to Trump’s 45 percent, both of which are well within the poll’s margin of error.

And though Biden appeared to edge Trump out in the survey, Biden’s policies did not: 46 percent said they prefer to continue along his path, while 48 percent said they would like to see a return to Trump’s policies.

What’s more, the survey was taken last month, Nov. 16-22, before the current Consumer Price Index report showing inflation at a 40-year high as consumers/voters continue to pay more for their basic necessities each month like food, energy, rent, and clothing.

As Fox News notes, a presidential survey taken three years ahead of the next election should be viewed in that light, meaning a lot can and likely will change between now and November 2024. But, the network reports that the survey is the Journal’s “first under its new polling operation led by Tony Fabrizio, the longtime Republican pollster who conducted surveys for Trump’s 2016 and 2020 campaigns, and by veteran Democratic pollster John Anzalone, who conducted surveys for Biden’s 2020 campaign.”

Also, the poll is noteworthy for a couple of key findings that favor Trump: One, he is winning more Independents than Biden, and two, he and Biden essentially split the Hispanic vote, which has historically and overwhelmingly gone for Democrats.

“Trump is winning independents and Biden and Trump are effectively tied among Hispanics,” Fabrizio told Fox News, adding that “both of those things are warning signs for Biden since he won independents and Hispanics by a significant amount in the last election.”

Though “there’s no question that Trump is still a polarizing figure,” Fabrizio went on to say that “Biden has become equally polarizing.”

As for whether or not he’ll toss his hat in the ring again, Trump indicated again on Saturday that is a distinct possibility when he talked about who he would like as a running mate.

And spoiler alert: It’s not former Vice President Mike Pence.

“I think Ron would be good,” Trump said in reference to Florida GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis during his “History Tour” with Bill O’Reilly in Sunrise, Fla., on Saturday.

Who else? Trump elaborated.

“Should it be a woman? Should it be – I’ll tell you somebody who’s great is Tim Scott,” he continued, mentioning the GOP junior senator from South Carolina. “A lot of people love Tim Scott. He’s great, a great person.”


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Jon Dougherty


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