A preliminary take on the new presidential matchup had the historian known for predicting the outcome of nearly every race since 1984 weighing in on who had the edge.
Dating back to President Ronald Reagan’s landslide defeat of former Vice President Walter Mondale, American University history professor Allan Lichtman is credited with correctly determining nearly every general election by using his Keys to the White House model.
Now, as Vice President Kamala Harris has supplanted incumbent President Joe Biden as the Democratic Party’s presumptive nominee, his assessment put six of 13 keys and tentative victory in favor of the coronated candidate over former President Donald Trump.
“It takes six negative keys to count out the party holding the White House,” Lichtman said during an appearance on NewsNation.
“Right now,” he argued, “Democrats have lost three keys.”
NEW: Forecaster who has predicted almost every election since 1984, says Kamala Harris will likely win the election in November.
Allan Lichtman, who correctly predicted Trump would win in 2016 & Biden in 2020, says his forecasts point to a Harris win.
Lichtman uses ’13 keys’ to… pic.twitter.com/US6LMgvWlH
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) July 29, 2024
As was covered, earlier this year, the professor believed Biden was beating Trump before going on to chide corporate media for post-debate coverage that benefited the GOP leader.
Based on the use of true or false questions that awarded “keys” to incumbents or delivered points to the opponent, Lichtman asserted the six favorable keys currently held by Harris included:
- Contest — there existed no challenger to the incumbency,
- Policy change — the current administration effects major changes in national policy,
- No scandal — argued the administration was not tainted,
- Challenger charisma — considered the public perception of Trump as neither charismatic nor a national hero,
- Short-term economy — contended no current economic recession,
- Long-term economy —Â argued economic growth throughout the term exceeded the previous two terms.
Meanwhile, Lichtman saw the GOP as holding three of the keys through the lack of incumbent charisma, the incumbent’s decision not to run, and a party mandate via control of the House of Representatives after the midterm elections.
The four keys up for grabs included foreign policy failure and success, which Licthman appeared unwilling to assign despite the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan, the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, the growing unrest in the Middle East, and American hostages remaining in the hands of Hamas terrorists for nearly 300 days.
“That’s why you saw Kamala Harris talking about the need for a ceasefire and hostage release,” he said contending the foreign policy points were the shakiest keys. “If the Biden administration can pull that off, they may well win the foreign policy/military success key, which they don’t have in hand right now.”
Also not factored in was social unrest, even as Hamas sympathizers spent weeks disrupting cities and college campuses and only days earlier had given cause for fencing to be reinstalled around Capitol Hill as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed Congress.
“The demonstrations we saw this spring have fizzled,” he said on NewsNation.
The final key regarded a significant third-party challenge to which he suggested environmental attorney Robert F. Kennedy Jr. would need to be securing at least 10% of the vote to be counted, which he argued was, “Possible, but not likely.”
That said, Lichtman withheld his final prediction until after the Democratic National Convention which is slated to begin in Chicago, Illinois on Aug. 19.
Native of Brooklyn, NY, Kevin Haggerty is a graduate of Hunter College where he studied Cultural Anthropology and Geography. An avid reader and truth seeker, he currently resides in Texas with his wife and their dog and, when he isn't researching current events and their impacts, you'll find him spending time with friends and family or working on his next novel.
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