TIPP Insights: China milks Pelosi’s visit

By tippinsights Editorial Board, TIPP Insights

The minute plans for the Speaker’s proposed visit to Taipei were leaked, and Beijing reacted with furious warnings and threats – the fate of the trip was sealed.

Reports suggest that some in the White House wanted the veteran Democratic politician to reconsider her plans. But, the aggressive stance taken by China put paid to any reconsideration. A cancellation after such a reaction would be perceived as weakness and seen as the U.S. yielding to China. With President Biden grappling with dismally low ratings and the mid-term elections round the corner, the administration could not risk being seen as bowing to its current biggest rival.

On the other end, in China, with just a few months to go until the next Party Congress, at which President Xi is hoping to kick off an unprecedented third term in office, Beijing could not afford to be seen as anything but strong and in command of the situation.

Pelosi’s visit prompted Beijing to conduct its largest-ever military drills around the self-governed island. The aggressive rhetoric and military exercises are not for Pelosi alone, though she’s a sharp critic of the communist regime. Beijing feels threatened by the growing national consciousness on the island and diverging ideologies from the mainland.

Taiwan is a vibrant democracy with free and transparent elections. The egalitarian society, with a GDP per capita thrice that of China, has little in common with its authoritarian rulers in Beijing. Its stature on the international stage is growing, as are dreams of sovereignty.

China has claimed the island as part of its sovereign territory under its “One country, Two systems” doctrine. But, in Hong Kong, another territory under the same heading, Beijing has gradually yet systematically oppressed and divested the region of its many freedoms, making everyone skeptical. Though the U.S. has officially accepted China’s claim over Taiwan, it continues to stick to “strategic ambiguity” and promises to protect the island from Chinese military action.

Now, the fateful Pelosi visit seems to have tipped the scales.

For the first time, China has explicitly stated that the use of the military has not been ruled out in its plans for reunification. A white paper on Taiwan published by the Chinese government says, “We will not renounce the use of force, and we reserve the option of taking all necessary measures. Use of force would be the last resort taken under compelling circumstances. We will only be forced to take drastic measures to respond to the provocation of separatist elements or external forces should they ever cross our red lines.”

The week-long war games involving hundreds of warplanes, dozens of naval ships, an aircraft carrier group, and a nuclear submarine surrounded Taiwan and kept everyone on tenterhooks. Beijing also stated that it would conduct combat patrols as part of its efforts to enforce the one-China policy.

More than a week after the watershed visit, U.S. Indo-Pacific coordinator Kurt Campbell said, “It has not ended and we expect it to continue to unfold in the coming weeks and months.”

Pelosi’s visit seems to have given President Xi and his team the excuse they were seeking to ramp up military presence and patrols in the region. Beijing has used the opportunity to level up its plans. Upping the ante has stoked tensions in a strategic geopolitical region.

Reunification of Taiwan is President Xi’s ultimate goal – an idea that most of the world has yielded to, in varying degrees. Alongside the apprehension regarding the new normal that China is going all out to impose, there is the relief that a military conflict has been averted for now.

READ MORE AT TIPP INSIGHTS

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