CNN’s Harry Enten, the network’s senior data reporter, has some crushing news for Democrats heading into the midterms.
Enten predicted that the Republican Party will see massive gains in November, and will be in an advantageous position. He discussed the political possibilities with host Jake Tapper Monday.
“If you’re a Republican running for re-election, or trying to unseat a Democrat, things are looking pretty good, right?” Tapper questioned.
“I would say they’re looking very good from the historical context,” Enten replied. “Basically, I took the best Republican positions on the generic congressional ballot at this point in midterm cycles since 1938, that generic ballot basically is, ‘Would you vote for the generic Republican or generic Democrat in your district?'”
The results were quite stark.
“And guess what, since 1938, the Republican two-point lead on the generic congressional ballot is the best position for Republicans at this point in any midterm cycle in over 80 years. It beats 2010 when Republicans were up a point,” he explained.
During the 2010 midterms, the GOP’s one-point advantage translated to a rash of seats for the conservative party. But Enten assured Tapper and the audience that this may not necessarily hold true this time around.
“Now, of course, the election is not being held tomorrow, and we’ll see. Sometimes history isn’t always prologue, but my estimate for the 2023 House makeup, if the election were held today, which again, it isn’t, we still have five months, five months from tomorrow, would be Republicans, 236 seats to 241 seats. Democrats, 194 to 199. That’s based off a formula of seat-to-seat race ratings from the Cook Political Report and Inside Elections.”
Tapper also noted that President Joe Biden’s ever-tanking approval rating might be one of the reasons Democrats are having a difficult midterm season.
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