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Florida Democrats see a poll bump, but Republicans say the map still runs through Trump country

May 19, 2026 | | Print Article

A new poll shows some Florida Democrats, including the execrable Alexander Vindman, now leading over their GOP opponents.

Conducted by Change Research, the poll shows Democrat gubernatorial candidate David Jolly beating GOP candidate Byron Donalds 46 percent to 42 percent.

The poll likewise shows Vindman, a candidate for Senate, defeating GOP candidate Ashley Moody 47 percent to 45 percent.

The poll goes against the grain, in that most polls show Donalds and Moody easily trouncing their Democrat opponents.

Yet in a statement to Mediaite, veteran Democrat consultant Steve Schale, who served as former President Barack Obama’s 2008 Florida campaign manager, swore that Change Research is a “legitimate Democratic pollster.”

“I have confidence in their work,” he said. “I’ve used them.”

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However, he did admit that the poll was conducted via online surveys, which he said “can skew” to include more respondents who are so-called “college educated,” which typically means liberal.

Critics on social media, meanwhile, laughed — perhaps arrogantly — at the notion of Democrats winning at all in such a deeply red state:

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Regarding Florida’s gubernatorial race, the Change Research poll found that Jolly is leading because of Independents, who are identified as No Party Affiliation (NPA).

“Jolly is consolidating Democrats and leads the all-important Florida NPA by 18 points (46% to 28%) with apparent room to grow,” the poll results read.

“Byron Donalds lags Donald Trump’s performance with Hispanics by 10 points, with only 30% of Puerto Ricans and 50% of Cubans currently supporting him,” the results continue.

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As for the Senate race, Vindman’s team sent a statement to Mediaite celebrating how Change Research’s polling is “underscoring growing momentum” behind his campaign.

Jolly’s campaign issued a similar statement saying the Change Research poll is “the most recent example of Jolly’s upward momentum” that they claim is being “driven by [the] affordability crisis and Democratic enthusiasm.”

Shale, for his part, said that he still thinks Florida is an uphill battle for Democrats, though he noted that the poll makes it clear a win isn’t impossible.

“I heard Ryan Tyson say recently, it’s not probable, but it’s possible for Democrats to win Florida,” Schale told Mediaite, referring to a polling expert and political consultant who previously advised the campaigns of Trump, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

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“I’m very much a realist,” he continued, adding that he believes the upcoming midterm election “feels a lot more like 2020 than 2024” and is therefore going to be “a lot more competitive.”

The Change Research poll also contained some bad news for Republicans on the national level. For instance, it found that President Trump boasts a favorable rating of only 44 percent compared to an unfavorable rating of 52 percent.

“Voters were unhappy with both the direction of the country (69% not satisfied) and their state (55% not satisfied), and again those numbers were worse among independents (79% not satisfied with direction of the U.S., 64% not satisfied with direction of Florida),” according to Mediaite.

“A key part of that was the cost of living, with strong majorities expressing stress about paying for gasoline (81%), food and groceries (80%), health care (73%), homeowners’ insurance (73%), and utility costs (73%),” the reporting continued.

Vivek Saxena
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