Timely polling ahead of midterms has Dems surging in their bid to hold Congress

With the midterm elections inching ever closer, suddenly there are a bevy of timely polls reflecting positive signs for Democrats.

While recent history and most pundits have suggested that the Democratic Party is in for a shellacking in November, the party has taken the lead over Republicans in both the FiveThirtyEight and Real Clear Politics influential generic congressional polling averages for the first time since last November.

From FiveThirtyEight:

The Real Clear Politics average currently shows Republicans up .2%, with the leading party fluctuating in various polls as seen here:


Interestingly, some in the media are pointing to the issue of abortion as a driving factor, as well as a number of recent developments.

“There are a number of factors at play that could be responsible for the apparent surge in Democratic fortunes,” Mediaite reported. “Republicans held a 2.6-point lead in the average when the draft Supreme Court decision that would strike down Roe v. Wade was leaked to the press, and became an immediate rallying cry for the 2022 midterms.”

More from the website:

Since then, though, the issue has only heated up further, with concerns about Justice Clarence Thomas‘ remarks in a concurring opinion, in which he said the court should “reconsider” rights in other cases, and cited Griswold v. Connecticut (1965, right of married persons to obtain contraceptives), Lawrence v. Texas (2003, right to engage in private, consensual sexual acts), and Obergefell v. Hodges (2015, right to marriage equality).

At the same time, gas prices — a major driver of inflation — have fallen sharply, the January 6 committee has put on a series of blockbuster hearings, Attorney General Merrick Garland’s investigation into January 6 has heated up, and Biden and the Democrats have notched a series of legislative wins.


Of course, as shown in the RCP average, if you shop around there is polling that suggests the GOP is going to be just fine.

Rasmussen Reports generic congressional ballot showed that as of Friday, Republicans have a five-point lead in their bid to recapture control of Congress — Democrats held an 8 point lead in August 2018, when they reclaimed the House.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the elections for Congress were held today, 46% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican candidate, while 41% would vote for the Democrat. Just four percent (4%) would vote for some other candidate, but another eight percent (8%) are not sure,” Rasmussen noted. “The GOP lead is two points higher than last week, when they led 46%-43%. Republicans have led the Generic Congressional Ballot all year, although their lead has narrowed significantly over the past three weeks.”

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., didn’t help his party much last week when he offered a dismal take on the midterm elections — seemingly taking a shot at Trump-backed Senate candidates.

“I think there’s probably a greater likelihood the House flips than the Senate,” he said. “Senate races are just different, they’re statewide, candidate quality has a lot to do with the outcome.”

This prompted a blistering reply from former President Donald Trump over the weekend.

“Why do Republicans Senators allow a broken down hack politician, Mitch McConnell, to openly disparage hard working Republican candidates for the United States Senate,” Trump posted on Truth Social. “This is such an affront to honor and to leadership. He should spend more time (and money!) helping them get elected, and less time helping his crazy wife and family get rich on China!”


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Tom Tillison


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